FNUS28 KWNS 192130

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0428 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 211200Z - 271200Z



A shortwave trough will crest the existing well-established

Intermountain West ridge, moving through the Pacific Northwest on

Day 3/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes

region Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday. The latest forecast guidance

continues to break down the upper-level ridge, at least temporarily,

shifting the corridor of stronger mid-level flow further south.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will surge south through the

northern and central Plains on Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday.

While uncertainty remains in the timing of this front, forecast

guidance suggests that it will be dry. This would present concerns

both ahead of and behind the front as it passes. On Day 5/Monday and

Day 6/Tuesday, the ridge will again build over the Intermountain

West with a potential breakdown on Day 7/Wednesday or Day 8/Thursday

with the passing of another upper-level shortwave trough across the

northern CONUS.



On Day 3/Saturday, moderate westerly flow aloft will remain in place

over much of the central High Plains. Record warm temperatures are

likely for yet another day as the ridge builds across the western

US. A 70% area was introduced for Day 3/Saturday, reflecting high

confidence in sustained westerly winds of 20-30 mph overlapping with

RH values of 10-20% during peak heating. Additionally, the 40% area

was significantly expanded to include the southeastern half of the

Great Basin, the northern half of the Southwest, and portions of the

central and southern High Plains. While much of the high elevations

of the central Rockies are within the drawn area, fuel conditions

and snow cover will preclude any fire weather concerns in those

areas.



On Day 4/Sunday, the 40% area was again significantly expanded to

account for strengthening southwesterly flow across large portions

of New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. However, the northern extent of

this area will likely be adjusted to account for the timing of the

frontal boundary. While this cold front will be impactful in

bringing stronger winds to the central portions of the CONUS,

temperatures behind the front will barely fall back to seasonal

averages.



On Day 5/Monday, deep surface mixing under westerly flow will again

impact southern Wyoming resulting in another day of 10-20 mph winds

and RHs down to 15-20%. Over the lee side of the central

Appalachians, expect post-frontal northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph

to combine with RHs of 20-30% resulting in an additional 40% area.



As the ridge begins to build back over the western US on Day

6/Tuesday, fire weather conditions appear to remain subdued. By Day

7/Wednesday, the latest forecast guidance is hinting at yet another

period of hot, dry, and windy conditions focused over much of

Wyoming and surrounding areas. A 40% area was included for this

region as deep boundary layer mixing will again introduce a corridor

of strong westerly winds of 15-25 mph coinciding with RHs of 10-20%.



Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to desiccate

fuels over several consecutive days across the southern two-thirds

of the western US through the outlook period. Independent of wind

speeds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH values suggest

extended burn periods across these areas where fuels become

increasingly receptive to ignition. One piece of good news is that

far northern portions of the CONUS, including areas highlighted in

the Day 1/Thursday through Day 2/Friday time frame may receive at

least minimal mounts of precipitation as each of the aforementioned

troughs move across the International Border with Canada.



..Stearns/Williams.. 03/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$