FNUS28 KWNS 052136

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Valid 071200Z - 131200Z



...Synopsis...

Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist

through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada

remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and

repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast

to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily

be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the

forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and

expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail

across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and

dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West

through the forecast period. 



On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to

Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A

deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL

Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical

probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On

Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will

overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly

winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of

critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry

fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire

spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather

concerns. 



Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal

temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western

CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry

conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and

Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns

may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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