FNUS28 KWNS 032158

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0356 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026



Valid 051200Z - 111200Z



The mid-level flow pattern over the US is forecast to transition

from highly amplified to predominantly zonal over the next several

days. Eastern US troughing will persist through the remainder of

this week and into the weekend. Thereafter weakening western ridging

will shift eastward allowing stronger westerly flow and weak

toughing to develop over the western US. As the pattern transitions,

cool and dry conditions over the eastern half of the US should warm

as high pressure develops across the east. Fire-weather concerns are

possible over parts of FL and the Southeast initially with dry and

breezy post-frontal conditions. However, fire-weather concerns are

more uncertain into next week.



...Southeast and FL...

Dry and breezy offshore winds are expected over parts of FL and the

Southeast late this week and into the weekend. Upper troughing will

deepen before moving offshore allowing a strong cold front to move

south D3/Thursday. Behind this front, dry continental air and cooler

temperatures may allow for occasional overlap of RH below 40% and

winds of 10-15 mph. However area fuels remain only modestly

receptive and fire-weather concerns are likely to remain localized

through D5/Saturday.



...Southwest and Southern Plains...

As the flow pattern transitions to more zonal flow later next week,

the rerun of west/westerly flow aloft will support some lee

cyclogenesis and strong surface winds over the Southwest and Plains.

This could support some increase in fire-weather potential given

recent dryness. However, precipitation and generally limited fuels

cast significant uncertainty through the remainder of the extended

forecast period.



..Lyons.. 02/03/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$