FNUS22 KWNS 211742

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE

TEXAS...PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST

OKLAHOMA...



The Critical area was expanded slightly northward to account for

pre-frontal wind/RH meeting necessary thresholds before the arrival

of the impending cold front in the late morning hours. The frontal

boundary is expected to move through the Critical area and arrive

across southwest Texas by around sunset. Thereafter, the front will

continue to surge southwest across eastern New Mexico and into far

west Texas as RHs across the region also diurnally increase. The

Elevated area was also expanded to the south and west along the

International border to include the Trans Pecos region and portions

of southeast Arizona to account for the frontal boundary interaction

as well as strong westerly winds within the well-mixed boundary

layer during peak heating.



Consideration was given to retracting the northern extent of the

Elevated area south across Kansas due to the anticipated timing of

the cold front. However, given that the temperature gradient is

somewhat weak, as was previously mentioned, RHs behind the front are

expected to remain low. This dry air will combine with northerly

winds to promote a period of elevated conditions in the post-frontal

regime. While uncertainty remains as to cloud cover and how far

north these conditions may extend, trends will be monitored with

future forecast issuances.



..Stearns.. 03/21/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/



...Synopsis...

Strong upper-level flow will be maintained across the northern U.S.

on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain largely flattened until some

amplification occurs toward Monday morning. The amplification of the

upper-level pattern will help push a cold front through the southern

Plains during the morning. The front may eventually slow/stall

near/south of the Red River latitude.



...Texas and Oklahoma...

A somewhat complex fire weather setup will develop during the

morning and persist into the afternoon as the cold front makes

southward progress. The overall temperature gradient will be rather

modest and RH recovery behind the boundary will not be overly quick

to occur. Some upper-level clouds can be expected to dampen surface

heating, especially with northern extent. Even so, temperatures

could still reach the 70s into the 80s. Winds behind the front will

range from 20-25 mph along with stronger gusts. RH will be the main

uncertainty in this scenario, but state of fuels and the strong

winds would still keep fire weather concerns high even with 15-25%

RH. Near and south of the front, however, it is more probable to see

10-20% RH. Stronger, gusty winds are also expected just ahead of the

front within the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains. There, Critical

conditions are expected as well.



...Kansas...

Winds of around 25 mph are expected to persist the longest across

much of Kansas. RH will likely be 25-35% on account of upper-level

clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said, dry grasses will

support ignition/spread due to the strong, gusty winds.



...Southwest...

Very dry conditions will continue as RH falls into the single digits

in many locations during the afternoon. Winds will generally be

weaker here, but 10-15 mph (locally higher in the terrain) will

support an Elevated fire weather threat given dry fuels.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$