FNUS21 KWNS 211541

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1040 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 211700Z - 221200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN

WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN

NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...



The eastern edge of the Elevated area over southwest Iowa was

expanded eastward to account for the latest forecast guidance

advecting dry air farther east ahead of the cold frontal passage

tonight. RHs over southern Iowa and northern Missouri are expected

to drop below 25% during peak heating this afternoon coinciding with

sustained southwest winds of 10-20 mph. Farther west, mid-morning

surface observations are already indicating strong southwest winds

of 15-25 mph combined with RHs under 25% over the higher elevations

within the Critical area over Wyoming and surrounding areas. The

latest forecast guidance shows that southern portions of the

Elevated area across the southern half of New Mexico and Texas will

struggle to see widespread strong winds. Still, at least locally

elevated conditions are expected over these areas today where fuels

are very receptive to ignition and spread given summertime-like

temperatures and very dry air over the last several days.



..Stearns.. 03/21/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/



...Synopsis...

Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the U.S. today.

However, some modest decrease in the amplitude of this feature can

be expected. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across the

northern tier states with some extension into the central Rockies. A

stout surface trough/cold front will begin to move south through the

northern/central Plains.



...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...

The combination of the strongest mid-level winds and the surface low

to the east will promote Critical fire weather conditions during the

afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) and RH of

10-15% can be expected. The cold front will move through during the

late evening into the overnight. Gusty north winds are expected in

its wake.



...Colorado Foothills/Front Range...

Conditions within the typical wind prone areas will not likely be

significantly different than farther north given the cross terrain

pressure gradient. Winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% are probable.

While these meteorological conditions would mean Critical fire

weather, recent precipitation has impacted fuels and updated ERC

data suggest that Critical fire weather may only occur locally. The

cold front will not likely impact this region until around Sunday

morning.



...Southwest into central/southern Plains...

A very broad area of elevated fire weather is forecast to develop

this afternoon. The warm to hot temperatures and lack of rainfall

continue to cure fuels in these areas. Very dry conditions are

likely in the Southwest (RH of 5-15%) with modest improvements to

around 15-25% in the central Plains near the Missouri River. Winds

of 15-20 mph will be most common, but locally higher speeds are

possible especially in the terrain of the Southwest.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$