FNUS21 KWNS 051647

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1147 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Valid 051700Z - 061200Z



...Morning Update...

The previous forecast remains on track. Across portions of the

Mid-Atlantic, clear skies this morning and poor overnight recoveries

have resulted in widespread RH values of 25-40 percent. In parts of

southeastern NM and West Texas, mostly cloudy skies will remain over

the area as the subtropical jet transports mid-high level moisture

overhead. Surface troughing in the lee of the NM high terrain

through far West TX will align with low level thermal ridging,

promoting warm afternoon temperatures and gusty westerly winds.

Widespread gusts of up to 35 mph appear likely throughout the

Plains, with locally higher gusts possible (especially along the

higher terrain). However, a tempered fuelscape due to recent

rainfall mitigates a broader fire threat.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/



...Synopsis...

Stronger southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an advancing upper-level

trough will move into the Southern Plains through today. A cold

front trailing behind an elongated surface low over OK should stall

across the TX Panhandle and just south of the Red River Valley this

afternoon. Farther east, a deepening upper trough over Ontario and

Quebec and associated increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will

encroach into the Northeast today. At the surface, drier pre-frontal

southwest flow will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.



...Mid Atlantic...

Dry, southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving

cold front across the OH River Valley is expected across the Mid

Atlantic today. Limited boundary layer moisture, leading to RH

reductions of 20-30%, and sustained south/southwest winds of around

15 mph with higher gusts will evolve by mid-afternoon in the

Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. A zone of minimal rainfall has resulted

in lingering fuel dryness across northern NC into much of central

and eastern VA. Elevated fire weather highlights where added to the

aforementioned area where most likely alignment of dry and breezy

conditions and dry fuels exist.



...West Texas...

A 60-65 knot mid-level jet in advance of an upper trough will eject

into the Southern Plains today. A cold front will stall across the

northwest TX, inhibiting dry, downslope enhanced westerly flow from

aligning with the more receptive fuels across the eastern TX

Panhandle into southwestern KS. Breezy west winds of 15-25 mph amid

relative humidity of around 15% are still expected across much of

west TX. However, recent wetting rainfall in the region has

mitigated the overall fuelscape, limiting impact from an otherwise

elevated fire weather threat.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$