FNUS21 KWNS 041640 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the Elevated risk area. Current satellite imagery portrays high cloud cover overspreading much of the southern Plains and portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Increasing cloud cover throughout the day is expected to deter deeper mixing, maintaining marginal RH across the uppermost High Plains. However, RH is still anticipated to remain elevated to near critical this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle into western OK where current surface observations depict 15-30 percent values steadily decreasing. Presently, a cold front is progressing across northern NE with trailing northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Model soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer and elevated instability ahead of the approaching cold front, enhancing the possibility for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across southern NE, western KS and eastern CO. Recent rainfall, a slight transition to green up, and expected precipitation overnight may alleviate broader fire concerns should any ignitions occur. However, areas where fuels remain dry, a west-northerly wind shift with sustained 15-20 mph winds through the overnight hours could temporarily exacerbate fire weather conditions before appreciable rainfall arrives. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated fire-weather conditions likely. ...Southern Plains... Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This should support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern edge of the Elevated probabilities. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph. ...Mid Atlantic... Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont. A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns, though some localized risk remains possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$