FNUS21 KWNS 040636 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated fire-weather conditions likely. ...Southern Plains... Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This should support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern edge of the Elevated probabilities. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph. ...Mid Atlantic... Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont. A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns, though some localized risk remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$