AXPZ20 KNHC 191437

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1430 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 03N, moving 

west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.



The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, north of 05N, moving 

west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the 

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.



The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W, from 04N to 17N, 

moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below

in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N94W to 09N100W to 

11N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 

convection noted from 07N to 13N between 88W and 120W, and from

06N to 10N between 120W and 130W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered near 30N129W to

the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, with a 

surface trough over the Gulf of California. This pattern is 

supporting gentle to locally moderate NW breezes and moderate 

seas off Baja California. Moderate to fresh gap winds, and seas

of 6-7 ft, prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to 

gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern 

Mexico. Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of 

California. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of 

the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of 

California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate

seas west of the Baja peninsula through the end of the week. 

Farther south, fresh gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec tonight. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in 

SW swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican 

offshore waters.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N 

while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate 

seas prevail across the discussion waters.



For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the 

waters north of 05N through the week while gentle to moderate 

winds are expected south of 05N. Cross- equatorial southerly 

swell will propagate across the regional waters, keeping seas in 

the moderate range through Fri, except in the lee of the 

Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. Another round 

of large swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia

by late Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure prevail north of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high

centered near 30N129W. The pressure gradient between this area 

of high pressure along with lower pressure within the monsoon 

trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the 

monsoon trough to 20N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters 

are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, 

prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate

winds, and combined seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell, prevail 

south of the monsoon trough.



For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the

end of the week. A reinforcing surge of southerly swell south of

the monsoon trough is expected between 115W and 135W by midweek.

Little change is expected elsewhere. 



$$

AL