AWUS01 KWNH 242115

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250300-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

512 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...Eastern Portions of the TX Panhandle...Northwest

TX...Southwest and Central OK



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 242112Z - 250300Z



SUMMARY...Pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms may expand a

bit more in coverage going into the evening hours. A localized

threat of flash flooding will exist.



DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows

cooling convective tops across parts of the TX Big Country up into

far southwest OK. The convection is becoming increasingly aligned

with strengthening deep layer ascent associated with stronger

upper-level jet dynamics downstream of the approaching upstream

trough over the southern Rockies. This is coinciding with MLCAPE

values of near 1000 J/kg focused up in close proximity also with a

frontal zone draped across the region.



Some additional uptick in the coverage of convection is expected

going into the evening hours as larger scale forcing increases

further and interacts with the modest pool of moisture and

instability nosing up across the region. This will generally be

near and east of an area of surface low pressure over the TX

Panhandle, but more closely aligned with areas of strongest

low-level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near the front.



By later this evening, some of the uptick in the coverage of

convection is expected to involve central OK as the southerly

low-level jet here strengthens and yields stronger moisture

transport.



Expect rainfall rates in the near-term to be capable of reaching

well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour range, but with some

cell-training concerns in place, there may be some localized

swaths of additional rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4+ inches by

late this evening. This is consistent with a blend of the 18Z HREF

and 12Z REFS guidance.



This will drive a threat for mainly localized and urban flash

flooding concerns.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   37119822 36819707 36109666 34929704 33889811 

            33559921 33580013 34170070 34820090 35840067 

            36829965