AWUS01 KWNH 241851

FFGMPD

TXZ000-250030-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

250 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...Southwest to Northwest Texas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 241850Z - 250030Z



SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms

may produce an isolated to scattered threat for flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery continues to show the

development and expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms

across portions of the Trans-Pecos region of southwest TX through

parts of the Edwards Plateau and into the TX Big Country.



The environment continues to destabilize out ahead of an upstream

cold front and associated deep layer trough crossing the southern

Rockies. MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1500+ J/kg, and

with enhanced effective bulk shear of 40 to 50+ kts, convection is

quickly attaining a substantial level of organization with

multicell and supercell convective clusters noted.



Additional boundary layer destabilization will yield localized

areas of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg by late this afternoon, which

will include a much greater level of instability pooling up across

the TX Big Country. The environment is increasingly moist with PWs

reaching 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal, and this is

being driven by a moist southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts.

This moisture transport out ahead of the front coupled with the

instability and shear should help facilitate rainfall rates

increasing to as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour with the more

organized convective cells.



Some cell-merger activity is expected over the next few hours as

the overall convective footprint takes on a larger scale QLCS

evolution by this evening. Upscale growth of convection will be

strongly connected to the arrival of strong jet-aided divergence

aloft and the already favorable kinematic and thermodynamic

environments.



Expect some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals to possible

where any cell-merger and cell-training activity occurs going

through early this evening. This may drive some isolated to

scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially in around the

more urbanized areas.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   34259948 34039855 33179816 32159877 31250020 

            30500214 30210368 30480421 31120423 31850307 

            32740187 33950035