AWUS01 KWNH 241545

FFGMPD

OKZ000-242100-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1144 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 241544Z - 242100Z



SUMMARY...An axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across

portions of north-central to northeast OK will be capable of

cell-training over the next few hours. High rainfall rates

associated with this will drive a threat for isolated to scattered

areas of flash flooding, and especially for the more urbanized

locations.



DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E VIS/IR satellite imagery shows a

well-organized convective cloud canopy over areas of north-central

to northeast OK. Convective trends show the activity exhibiting

cooling cloud tops, with some tops to near -70C, and this is

suggestive of an environment of increasing deep layer ascent along

with favorable moisture and instability transport.



Mesoscale analyses show the convection elevated in nature

northeast of a stationary front draped across western OK down into

the Red River Valley. The nose of a south-southwest 30+ kt

low-level jet is overrunning this boundary at a largely orthogonal

angle and is favoring a corridor of relatively strong moisture

convergence within a favorably divergent flow regime aloft given

favorable left-exit region upper-jet dynamics riding across

northern OK. Coinciding the with the moisture transport and

forcing is the pooling of elevated instability with MUCAPE values

of 1000+ J/kg.



Positive 3-hour MUCAPE differentials across central OK juxtaposed

against negative 3-hour MUCAPE differentials over northeast OK

suggests a strengthening of the elevated instability gradient

which also suggests an axis of strengthening frontogenesis aloft.

This will favor stronger ascent via isentropic lift and enhanced

frontogenetical forcing in the near-term with the convection and

support a further uptick in rainfall rates.



Rainfall rates may reach up to 1.5+ inches/hour given the

environment, and with an environment conducive to some

backbuilding and cell-training of the convection, some rainfall,

totals over going through mid-afternoon may reach 2 to 4+ inches.

Dry antecedent conditions overall will mitigate the runoff

potential in the near-term, but as some of these heavier rainfall

rates persist, or get into a more urbanized setting, there may be

a concern eventually for isolated to potentially scattered areas

of flash flooding.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36789745 36719576 36429480 35569461 35119574 

            35289738 35679858 36129884 36529849