AWUS01 KWNH 240641

FFGMPD

TXZ000-241100-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1205

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

240 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...North Texas...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 240640Z - 241100Z



SUMMARY...Short QLCS segment propagating into deeper

moisture/instability axis.  Low-end incident or two of flash

flooding possible given rates of 1.75"/hr and totals to 3".



DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS and GOES-E 10.3um have shown a recent

uptick in convective intensity with overshooting tops cooling near

-70C occasionally with mature weak QLCS from earlier thunderstorms

over the Big Country. The complex has history of localized 2"+

totals upstream but is moving into a more focused low-level

moisture flux/instability axis along and west of strong/reinforced

stationary front across eastern TX.  Surface observations show

outflow is starting to reach southeasterly flow at the nose of

surface Tds in the 60s, that are sourced with even higher moisture

into the low 70s upstream by a few hours.  A weak surface

inflection of the meso-low along the line is helping to locally

strengthen the influx of the higher moisture and slightly higher

unstable air with MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg in that stream west of

the front.  



Aloft, GOES-E WV suite shows the cluster is at the hard cyclonic

turning toward the northeast providing solid diffluence in the

upper-level jet coincident and downstream of the cluster helping

to further evacuate outflow to maintain stronger updraft strength

for a few more hours. Total PWats of 1.5" and expected isallobaric

inflow should provide rates of 1.75", occasionally up to 2" and

with still some upstream potential for short-term training of an

hour or two, localized totals of 2-3" remain possible.  Given the

strength of the rates and surface rooted cells in proximity to

urban locales of North Texas and incident of low-end flash

flooding remains possible for the next few hours before the cells

cross the frontal boundary and move into much drier (upper 40s Td)

and stable environment.



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...



LAT...LON   33319721 33289635 32929591 32469584 31979628 

            31959723 32249820 32649845 33029825 33229785