AWUS01 KWNH 240609

FFGMPD

OKZ000-KSZ000-241200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1204

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

209 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Adj South-central Kansas...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 240610Z - 241200Z



SUMMARY...Deepening low level confluence and WAA will provide

consistent ascent for slow forward propagating/back-building

updrafts with 1.5"/hr rates resulting in localized 2-3" totals and

possible widely scattered incidents of flash flooding through

morning.



DISCUSSION...CIRA surface to 700mb LPW layers depict south to

north plume of enhanced low level moisture across northwest to

north Texas.  A well defined stationary front/theta-E gradient is

denoted along and just east of I-35 across much of central OK

before angling westward along the KS/OK border toward weak surface

wave in SW KS.  GOES-E WV suite shows strong closed low continuing

to advance out of the Four Corners with broad southwesterly flow

across much of the Southern Plains; yet the frontal zone remains

anchored by equally strong downstream low level ridging over the

Lower Mississippi Valley.  As such, the deep layer moisture plume

which totals to 1.5 increasing to 1.75" of Total PWat is corralled

well and fluxed on 40kt 850mb flow. 



CIRA LPW 700-500mb shows slug of enhanced moisture in the

southwesterly flow along the northern edge of the 300mb jet streak

axis associated with mid-level shortwave and left exit divergence

area across west-central OK into north-central OK. The strong

veering through this 850-700mb layer is moist and conditionally

unstable with MUCAPEs over 2000 J/kg.  The strong WAA through the

layer is providing some weak isentropic upglide before providing

sufficient directional/speed convergence to tap the unstable air

for vertical ascent.  As such, scattered clusters of thunderstorms

are breaking out across much of central to northeastern OK,

including far southern KS at different vertical layers (lower

further west).  Downstream flow supports cell motions toward the

east, but with the stronger convergence and unstable air upstream,

backbuilding will result in slowing effective cell/cluster motions

and increasing localized rainfall totals.  Rates of 1.5"/hr are

more likely, though very transient uptick toward 2"/hr remain

possible and isolated within the larger WAA flow regime.  As such,

with slow eastward motion of the overall pattern due to the

stronger low level ridge to the east; scattered streaks of 2-3"+

totals are possible.   00z HREF empowered by the NAM-Nest and ARW

solutions suggest even a spot of 4" is not out of the realm of

possibility with 10-15% of 5"/6hr by 12z over east-central OK. 



In general, FFG values are high (2"+/hr, 3-4"/3hrs) and rates are

not too extreme, that slow infiltration is more likely; however,

an isolated incident of flash flooding remains possible over the

next 4-6 hrs.  With that stated, this is just the start of

prolonged moderate WAA ascent and repeating rounds likely to set

the stage for later flooding concerns into the late morning early

afternoon. 



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   37709742 37649652 36819579 36029535 35239552 

            34709607 34459724 34929812 35479839 36199802 

            36659783 37159777