AWUS01 KWNH 191826

FFGMPD

MOZ000-KSZ000-192322-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

223 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191822Z - 192322Z



Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce areas of 1-2

inch/hr rain rates through 00Z/7p CDT tonight.  Areas of flash

flooding are possible.



Discussion...A cluster of strong thunderstorms have developed in

the Manhattan/Emporia region over the past half hour.  The storms

are embedded in a strongly unstable (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE)

environment, with 1.8 inch PW values supporting heavier rainfall

in water-loaded downdrafts.  The cells are likely benefiting from

weak mid-level vorticity maxima (over eastern Nebraska and western

Kansas) providing ascent.  Low-level convergence along a remnant

outflow from morning convection was also likely providing a focus

for updraft development in the area.



Kinematics aloft are supportive of slow and at times erratic storm

motions along with 1-2 inch/hr rain rates beneath dominant

activity.  The proximity of intense convective development and

downdraft potential (from 7C/km lapse rates aloft) suggests that

the storms will eventually form one or two small linear

segments/clusters that propagate slowly southward toward US 50 and

US 400 near/east of Wichita over the next 2-3 hours or so.  Flash

flood potential should accompany this activity - especially across

east-central and northeastern Kansas where FFG thresholds are

around 1 inch/hr and could readily become exceeded.  Slightly

higher rain rates may be needed with southward extent for any

appreciable flash flood risk.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...SGF...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   39249529 37479456 37079656 37439953 39129912