AWUS01 KWNH 191733

FFGMPD

TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-192332-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

132 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Areas affected...eastern Arizona, portions of New Mexico



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191732Z - 192332Z



Summary...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity

through 00Z/6p MDT, with flash flooding possible especially in

low-lying spots and near burn scars.



Discussion...Latest satellite/radar imagery depicts abundant

insolation leading to isolated convective development along

favored ridgelines/terrain - especially in New Mexico.  The storms

are forming in an environment with just enough mid-level

instability and moisture (0.75-1.3 inch PW values) for wetting

thunderstorms to develop.  Kinematic fields aloft suggest slow and

at times erratic movement with any developing activity.  Models

and observations are also suggestive of continued expansion of

convective coverage through peak heating hours and beyond.



As cells continue to expand in coverage, areas of 0.5-1 inch/hr

rain rates will become more common.  Perhaps the highest

concentration of higher rain rates will occur across southern New

Mexico and southeastern Arizona where moisture content/PW values

are highest.  Areas of heavy rainfall may occur atop sensitive

low-lying areas and burn scars that could enhance runoff locally.



Models (particularly the HREF) depict that the peak convective

threat will likely occur in the 21-00Z timeframe, with slow

weakening expected beyond that timeframe.  Flash flooding will be

possible given the aforementioned scenario.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36840536 35890489 33770473 32920503 31800612 

            31710819 31370831 31371092 31641155 32631118 

            33940991 34770860 35890735 36760636