AWUS01 KWNH 191321

FFGMPD

MDZ000-VAZ000-191918-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

920 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Areas affected...southeastern Virginia/far southern DelMarVa

Peninsula



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191318Z - 191918Z



Summary...A focused areas of nearly stationary convection has

produced spots of 2.5-5 inch rainfall totals across the far

southern DelMarVa Peninsula this morning.  Additional totals of

3-5 inches cannot be ruled out.  Localized/isolated inundation is

expected through at least 19Z.



Discussion...Slow-moving convection has evolved across the

southern DelMarVa this morning.  The storms are embedded within a

relatively focused area of low-level convergence just east of a

weak surface low near PHF/Williamsburg, with low-level easterlies

maintaining moisture/buoyancy against a more stable airmass across

much of Virginia.  Weak/modest kinematics were supporting slow

cell movement, and spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were being

estimated per MRMS with the most dominant activity.  A few flood

impacts have also been observed near the Accomack, VA area this

morning.



Although the spatial extent of the flash flood threat is fairly

localized, the slow evolution of meso-to-synoptic-scale features

supporting heavy rainfall is a bit concerning.  Heavy rainfall

could persist in this regime through 19Z, with additional 3-5 inch

rainfall totals possible.  Models suggest that the convergence

axis/low supporting heavy rainfall will gradually migrate westward

through midday, which may temper the heavy rain threat eventually.

 Local impacts are expected to continue and may worsen while heavy

rainfall persists.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...



LAT...LON   38167536 37587545 36727585 37217686 37937655 

            38137597