AWUS01 KWNH 071115

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-071630-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0138

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

715 AM EDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle...Southwest GA...Far

Southeast AL...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 071115Z - 071630Z



SUMMARY...Slow moving pre-frontal band with embedded training

cores pose localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours.  Flash flooding

possible.



DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad right entrance region

of to 130+kt 3H Jet across the area of concern as the jet lifts

through the central Ohio Valley in the next few hours.  A weak

surface low across NW GA is shepherding along a slow moving cold

front that now extends southward across SE AL into the far W FL

panhandle into the central Gulf.  Along/ahead of the boundary the

instability axis is nosed northward into SW GA with 500+ MLCAPE as

far north as Columbus, GA increasing to 1500+ along the central

Gulf Coast, this while the moisture axis remains pooled mainly

through depth along and just anafrontal.  However, there is a

viable overlap location along a pre-frontal surface to boundary

layer wind confluence and pressure trough.  The combination of

factors as resulted in sufficient convective development of a

broadening band of thunderstorms from Washington county, FL to

Houston county, AL toward Calhoun county, GA.   Moisture through

depth results in 1.75" total PWats, however, sfc-850mb LPW

supported by low 70s Tds suggest the bulk of that is being fluxed

into the confluent line at 15kts near surface to 35kts near cloud

base with solid 15-30 degrees of confluence.



As such, rates of 2"/hr occasionally ticking up to 2.5" are

becoming more common along the line into SE AL.  Furthermore, the

flow above the boundary layer is providing fairly unidirectional

flow for training nearly parallel to the slow advancing frontal

zone.  This allows for increased duration, especially as upstream

redevelopment is occurring well into the Gulf.   While the front

is providing some slow eastward propagation this may allow for 1-2

hours of heavy rainfall and may result in localized 2-4" totals,

with highest totals more likely near the stronger flux and higher

unstable air near the Gulf, though potential to extend further

inland is expected as instability axis is forecast to shift

northward as well.   FFG values seem to decrease from coast inward

to SW GA, to pose a similar potential of exceedance though the

line...but not continuously so.  As such, flash flooding is

considered possible and likely to be widely scattered to scattered

in nature, and per usual greater near urban and traditional prone

locations.



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   33078300 32688277 31288362 30238431 29638483 

            29828542 30168584 30388616 31208554 31878483 

            32848365