AWUS01 KWNH 061825

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070023-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

224 PM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025



Areas affected...coastal Mississippi, southern Alabama, and

southwestern Georgia



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 061823Z - 070023Z



Summary...Scattered convective bands will continue to promote

occasional training across the discussion area through 00Z/8p EDT.

 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected with the most vigorous

and training convection.  Occasional instances of flash flooding

remain possible.



Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has

exhibited limited/localized convective training while resulting in

several spots of 2+ inch/hr rain rates northeast through southwest

of Montgomery.  This MCS remains oriented favorably for localized

training as it migrates toward the Auburn and Columbus areas. 

These storms will likely maintain their intensity through at least

the AL/GA border with local 2 inch/hr rain rates continuing. 

Instability is a bit weaker in Georgia, which could result in the

onset of a weakening trend with storms as they move toward the

Macon vicinity.



Farther upstream, trailing, but diffuse outflow was located

generally from Montgomery west-southwestward to areas just

southeast of Hattiesburg.  Additional showers/thunderstorms

continue to persist along and south of this outflow generally from

coastal areas of Mississippi northeastward to Montgomery.  A few

updrafts were also noted on the southwestern flank of the

aforementioned MCS near Montgomery.  These trends will continue,

with localized areas of backbuilding and training promoting 2

inch/hr rain rates at times and localized spots of 4+ inch amounts

through 00Z this evening.  Given rain rates and the overall FFG

spatial profile across the discussion area, flash flood potential

appears to be maximized in urbanized/sensitive areas and in spots

that can experience greater than 1-2 hours of training, deep

convection.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   33478451 33478369 32708348 31538453 30848620 

            30188822 30148950 31238915 32018854 32898634