AWUS01 KWNH 060732

FFGMPD

GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061330-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0134

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

331 AM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025



Areas affected...southeast LA and south-central MS into

north-central AL



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060730Z - 061330Z



Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will lead to localized totals

of 2-4". Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.



Discussion...A QLCS is slowly traversing the Southeast this

morning, with the most intense convection located across much MS

and moving into AL. Rainfall rates have been as high as 1-2"/hr in

this area, and those rates are expected to continue with a

mesoscale environment characterized by ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg,

precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7 inches (near the max moving

average, per JAN sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km)

shear of 50-60 kts.



A consensus of hi-res models suggests that short term (3-6 hour)

localized totals of 2-4" can be expected, which is likely to at

least locally continue to eclipse associated Flash Flood Guidance

(FFG) of 2.5-3.0". While the line of convection is relatively slow

to move eastward, thankfully it continues to gradually move into

areas of MS/AL that are much drier are capable of handling heavy

rainfall. Scattered (to possibly numerous) instances of flash

flooding are considered likely.



Churchill



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...



ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   34928531 34518496 33808559 32978664 32128740 

            31338814 30128945 29759009 29979071 30449143 

            31119156 32279055 33708896 34578737 34898632