AWUS01 KWNH 060722

FFGMPD

TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061320-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0159

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

321 AM EDT Wed May 06 2026



Areas affected...Central AR, Southwest TN, Northern MS



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 060720Z - 061320Z



SUMMARY...Convection developing along and just north of a

southward-moving surface front will pose an isolated flash flood

threat through 13Z across portions of central AR into southwest TN

and northern MS. Fast storm motions parallel to the boundary will

allow for brief periods of training, with localized rainfall

totals of 2 to 3 inches possible where upscale growth occurs.



DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations

indicate convection developing along and north of a surface

frontal boundary draped across central Arkansas into southwest

Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Ascent is being heavily driven

by strong frontogenesis in the surface to 925 mb layer, which is

fostering enhanced low-level convergence. Concurrently, strong 925

mb moisture transport is being directed squarely into this frontal

zone, providing ample fuel for precipitation production.



The thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly supportive

of robust updrafts along the boundary. Recent mesoanalysis

indicates a modest destabilization trend, with MUCAPE values

increasing by roughly 400 J/kg over the past 3 hours. Absolute

MUCAPE values now range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. The warm sector

ahead of the boundary remains strongly capped, effectively

confining the convective development and heavy rainfall threat to

the frontal zone itself or the immediate cool side to its north.



Individual cell motions are relatively fast from west to east.

Because these motions are largely aligned parallel to the

orientation of the frontal boundary, there is an inherent risk for

training convection. However, a key mitigating factor is the

continuous southward progression of the front itself, which should

serve to limit the duration of this training at any single

location.



Ultimately, the flash flood risk will depend heavily on the degree

of upscale convective development along and just behind the

advancing front. If sufficient consolidation occurs to maximize

the brief training window, localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3

inches are possible, which could overwhelm sensitive basins or

poor drainage areas. There are some signs of this beginning to

occur across central AR. Given the progressive nature of the

boundary and the fast individual cell motions, the overall flash

flood threat should generally remain isolated through 13Z.



Chenard



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...HUN...LZK...MEG...OHX...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   35868789 35698689 35168615 34728757 34448992 

            34179209 34079284 34179331 34299379 34579379 

            34989272 35239181 35688956 35768878