AWUS01 KWNH 060127

FFGMPD

TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060530-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

927 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025



Areas affected...Lower Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060126Z - 060530Z



SUMMARY...Stratiform rain with rainfall rates up to a half inch

per hour is prolonging ongoing life-threatening flash flooding

across northeast Arkansas, northern Tennessee, and western

Kentucky.



DISCUSSION...An area of stratiform rain on the northern and

western edge of the moisture plume and convection producing

incredibly heavy rainfall across northern Louisiana, Mississippi,

and southern Tennessee will continue to weaken and dissipate from

northwest to southeast through the evening hours. Heavy rain is no

longer expected in this area, but the stratiform rain ongoing in

this area is likely to continue for the next several hours for

southern and eastern portions of this MPD area, and should end

within the next hour of northern and western areas.



This stratiform rain is producing rainfall rates of up to a half

inch per hour, and for many areas is less than a quarter of an

inch per hour. While this alone would not be discussion-worthy,

given the many reports of a foot or more of rain over the past 3

days, much of which fell earlier today, even this light rain is

prolonging ongoing life-threatening flash flooding across much of

this region. As the convection causing the stratiform rain shifts

to the south, so too will the stratiform. FFGs in this entire MPD

region are less than a half inch per hour, and in many areas under

a quarter of an inch per hour, so even this rain is sufficient to

prolong and in some areas perhaps worsen ongoing flooding. Drier

air impinging on the precipitation shield from the north should

continue eroding the precipitation shield, which will finally

fully and completely end this historic rainfall event across this

area.



Wegman



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...



ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   38798478 38758475 38528444 38078433 37488448 

            36968508 36148647 36098690 36018851 35568966 

            34899052 34839053 34359118 33749192 33539240 

            33729268 34449212 35259166 35569142 36089088 

            36489021 36888923 37428821 37678763 37898714 

            38208641 38628553 38798509