AWUS01 KWNH 041740

FFGMPD

VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-042338-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

139 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026



Areas affected...Much of North Carolina into Southern Virginia



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 041738Z - 042338Z



Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible through

23z/7pm EDT.



Discussion...Radar shows increasing coverage of showers and

thunderstorms across North Carolina into southern Virginia. 1-2

inch hourly rainfall rates are occurring on an isolated basis in

cells forming in this general region -- highest near Fayetteville.

 The convection was increasing due to a number of factors,

including: 1) increasing instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from

surface heating, 2) ascent from weak mid-level shortwave troughs

just downstream of an upper low over Georgia, and 3) Moist

southerly flow emanating from the Gulf Stream, which was

maintaining 1.5-2.4 inch PW values into a stationary front

extending from near Richmond, VA west-southwest to near Asheville,

NC.



Scattered convection will continue to increase in coverage, with

areas of 1-3 inch totals expected (per models/HREF) in several

areas. Locally higher amounts could be observed where cell mergers

or local training materializes. Model guidance indicates 20-30

percent chances for 2 inch hourly rainfall rates in North Carolina

and 30-50 percent chances in southern Virginia, with similar 3-6

hour flash flood exceedance probabilities in these respective

areas. Urban locales (i.e., Richmond to Virginia Beach) and areas

of lower FFG from central VA through western NC will be more

susceptible to flash flooding.  This risk will likely exist

through at least 23Z/7p EDT.



Wilder/Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   37917811 37387629 36597614 35887705 35407834 

            34937946 35228212 35758253 36568148 37347985