AWUS01 KWNH 041516

FFGMPD

NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-042114-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1115 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026



Areas affected...portions of Georgia, far southwestern North

Carolina, far southeastern Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 041514Z - 042114Z



Summary...Thunderstorms with isolated/localized flash flood

potential will gradually increase in coverage and intensity

through the afternoon hours (21Z/5p eastern).



Discussion...Deep convection has recently materialized over/near

the Atlanta area, with more isolated activity noted across

northern Georgia and the Chattanooga, TN area.  The storms were

developing beneath a nearly stationary upper low centered over

northern GA, with thermodynamic characteristics (1500 J/kg MLCAPE,

1.8 inch PW values) supporting heavy rainfall with the developing

activity.  Abundant towering cumulus via satellite imagery

suggests that convection will gradually increase in coverage over

the next couple hours, with areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates

becoming common -- primary due to very weak steering flow aloft

and slow convective cell movement.



Models/CAMS also support the expected evolution of this activity

(increasing convective coverage).  Hourly FFG thresholds are

relatively high across central GA (around 2+ inch/hr), but

decrease with northward extent into southeastern TN and the

southern Appalachians where 1.5 inch/hr is more common.  Flash

flood potential will be slightly higher where lower FFG thresholds

are present, while urban excessive runoff cannot be ruled out

(particularly near Atlanta Metro).



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...



LAT...LON   35978289 35098231 33388299 32918494 34578545 

            35568472