ACUS48 KWNS 240859

SWOD48

SPC AC 240857



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0357 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 271200Z - 011200Z



...DISCUSSION...

The upper trough over the Gulf Coast is forecast to continue

weakening before merging with an upper low over the Atlantic Coast

through early next week. Residual moisture and enhanced westerly

flow aloft could support some low-end severe risk D4/Monday over

parts of the Southeast. However, poor lapse rates and the potential

for multiple prior rounds of convection casts significant

uncertainty on severe potential.



Thereafter, the mid-level flow pattern will gradually amplify as

ridging develops over the Southwest. At the same time, broad eastern

US troughing is expected to form, intensifying northwesterly flow

aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will move

southward into the Gulf by midweek with strong surface high pressure

developing in its wake. Persistent eastern US troughing and high

pressure over the central US will favor cooler, drier and more

stable surface conditions for the foreseeable future.



..Lyons.. 10/24/2025