ACUS48 KWNS 201607

SWOD48

SPC AC 201605



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Valid 231200Z - 281200Z



CORRECTED FOR TYPO



...DISCUSSION...

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High

Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High

Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should

result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and

particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on

small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's

convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm

sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the

threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for

potential areas to be added later. 



Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by

next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time

as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as

instability increases across the Plains. 



While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that

deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet

streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of

next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would

accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is

still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but

given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial

severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and

early into the following week across portions of the

central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.



..Bentley.. 06/20/2026