ACUS48 KWNS 200844

SWOD48

SPC AC 200842



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 231200Z - 281200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on

Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas.

Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas

Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal

severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.



On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over

much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a

warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making

thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.



...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the

central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level

moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid

Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from

Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid

Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak

passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance

for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid

Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe

threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability

exists concerning any specific scenario.



..Broyles.. 03/20/2026