ACUS48 KWNS 190901

SWOD48

SPC AC 190859



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 221200Z - 271200Z



...DISCUSSION...

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH

Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN

Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and

into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend

southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F

dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models

appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as

such predictability is low. However, there is at least some

potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to

upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup

given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm

sector.



This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with

high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move

across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying

across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As

this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest,

with little overall severe potential for those days.



..Jewell.. 03/19/2026