ACUS48 KWNS 070859

SWOD48

SPC AC 070857



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 101200Z - 151200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...

A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly

east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day

4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture

will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower

MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across

parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel

westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However,

the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should

limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will

take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies

across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong

south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially

modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where

isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface

front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too

marginal for severe probabilities at this time.



...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday...

A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread

the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the

Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer

moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across

the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML

should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance

varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and

related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm

potential.



..Weinman.. 04/07/2025