ACUS48 KWNS 050734

SWOD48

SPC AC 050732



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Valid 081200Z - 131200Z



...DISCUSSION...

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day

4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf

moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and

Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low

on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a

prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On

Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing

south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and

Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This

could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central

U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger

forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is

forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the

Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the

southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe

potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not

forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite

a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in

low predictability.



..Leitman.. 05/05/2026