ACUS11 KWNS 251047

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 251047 

LAZ000-TXZ000-251215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2178

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0547 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Areas affected...Far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...



Valid 251047Z - 251215Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631

continues.



SUMMARY...An MCS will continue eastward across far southeast Texas

into southwest Louisiana this morning, posing a risk of damaging

winds in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631. A local extension of the

watch (spatially and temporally) may be warranted.



DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS continues tracking eastward

at around 35 kt across far southeast TX toward southwest LA this

morning. Recent VWP data from KHGX sampled a 45-kt rear-inflow jet,

and several severe-wind reports have been associated with the line.

As this activity continues eastward into southwest LA, upper 60s to

lower 70s dewpoints, modest low-level warm advection (evident in LCH

VWP data), and around 40 kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear

should support its maintenance. The primary concern continues to be

damaging wind gusts, though a brief embedded/mesovortex tornado also

remains possible -- given sufficient low-level shear and the rich

boundary-layer moisture. As such, a local spatial and temporal

extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 may be warranted, to

include Jefferson Davis, Acadia, and Vermilion Parishes until 13Z or

14Z.



..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...



LAT...LON   29479219 29579428 29769436 30569418 30739393 30629324

            30159209 29829196 29479219 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH