ACUS11 KWNS 250556

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 250556 

LAZ000-TXZ000-250730-



Mesoscale Discussion 2176

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Areas affected...Parts of Southeast Texas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 250556Z - 250730Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading east-southeastward

to the Texas Coast through the early morning hours. Damaging winds

gusts are the main concern, though a brief/embedded tornado cannot

be ruled out.



DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEWX shows an MCS tracking

east-southeastward at around 40 kt across parts of south-central TX.

While the leading-line updrafts have decreased in intensity over the

last hour or so, the well-established cold pool and moist

pre-convective air mass continues to support embedded damaging wind

gusts -- especially with any embedded mesovortex structures (i.e.,

north/south-oriented portions of the line) in the near term. 



With time, the MCS will continue tracking east-southeastward to the

TX Coast through the early morning hours. Around 40 kt of

line-orthogonal effective shear and a moist/moderately unstable

downstream air mass will continue to support a risk of damaging wind

gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado risk -- aided by a

modest/gradually strengthening low-level jet and related low-level

hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be issued within the hour

for parts of the area.



..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...



LAT...LON   29359768 29879737 30559618 30809487 30649392 30279375

            29749378 28649542 28439625 28609691 28889744 29359768 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN