ACUS11 KWNS 242321

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 242321 

TXZ000-250115-



Mesoscale Discussion 2172

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0621 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and adjacent Rio

Grande Valley into south central Texas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 242321Z - 250115Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...One or two developing supercells may pose a risk for

severe hail and wind while spreading across and east of the Rio

Grande River early this evening, followed by more widespread, but

generally weaker, thunderstorm activity later this evening.  It is

not certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends

are being monitored for this possibility.



DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development appears to be

initiating across the higher terrain of northern Coahuila, to the

west-northwest of Del Rio.  This is occurring just ahead of the

slowly southeastward advancing conglomerate outflow boundary, which

is forecast to progress southeast of the Edwards Plateau through mid

to late evening.  



In the presence of a moist boundary-layer characterized by

mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, and strong deep-layer

shear, further intensification appears probable while propagating

across the Rio Grande River into areas near/north of the Del Rio

vicinity during the next couple of hours, aided by 30+ kt

west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.  This may include potential

for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts for at least a period

this evening, but due to increasing inhibition associated with the

loss of daytime heating, it remains unclear how long this will be

maintained, even as boundary-layer moisture slowly increases to the

east of the Kerrville, Hondo, and Cotulla vicinities.



Although more widespread thunderstorm development may overspread the

region in the wake of this initial activity, it appears that this

will mostly remain above/to the cool side of the southeastward

advancing convective outflow, where potential for damaging wind

gusts should be limited, though some risk for severe hail may

linger.



..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...



LAT...LON   30010213 30270142 30370092 30459967 29909930 29199979

            28980224 30010213 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH