ACUS11 KWNS 242033

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 242033 

TXZ000-OKZ000-242230-



Mesoscale Discussion 2170

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0333 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...from parts of north-central Texas into the Red

River Valley



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 242033Z - 242230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Potential exists for severe storms to develop across parts

of north-central Texas and into far southern Oklahoma later this

afternoon and into the early evening. The area is being monitored

for watch potential.



DISCUSSION...An expansive area of rain and embedded thunderstorms

continues to spread across all of northwest TX, with recent trends

showing general storm consolidation from near CDS to SJT as of

2030Z. East of this ongoing activity, a moist plume is noted over

much of North TX, with mid 60s F dewpoints and southeast surface

winds. Meanwhile into central TX, temperatures are much warmer into

the upper 80s F. In between the two areas, a theta-e axis exists,

with trajectories bringing this air mass toward the approaching area

of rain.



Outflows within this larger area of precipitation may eventually

induce new development across the Red River Valley and into much of

North TX over the next few hours. Storm trends are being monitored

for watch potential, with damaging winds the most likely severe

mode.



..Jewell/Leitman.. 10/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...



LAT...LON   32929927 33569917 34359933 34629913 34659873 34459811

            33999707 33639693 32569731 32039804 31869894 32059936

            32329939 32929927 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN