ACUS11 KWNS 241955

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 241955 

TXZ000-242230-



Mesoscale Discussion 2169

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0255 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...southwest Texas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...



Valid 241955Z - 242230Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628

continues.



SUMMARY...A possible supercell with large hail potential appears

evident over parts of southwest Texas over the next several hours.



DISCUSSION...Substantial thunderstorm activity currently extends

from Jeff Davis county east/northeastward into the San Angelo area,

with widespread rain and storms northward into much of northwest

Texas. The strongest activity remains along the southern periphery

of this activity where the storms have access to the warmer air

mass. Surface observations from the Big Bend areas into west-central

Texas show temperatures have risen into the 80s F while dewpoints

remain in the low 60s F. Meanwhile, temperatures aloft continue to

cool.



Mixed-mode severe storms are currently ongoing in this corridor,

which is also beneath the stronger upper-level jet. It is possible

toward the peak heating hours that a cell or two could produce hail

over 2.00" diameter, and/or move in more of an eastward direction as

the warmer air mass/SBCAPE aids rightward propagation and supercell

mode.



..Jewell.. 10/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...



LAT...LON   30710373 31310250 31640149 31840026 31350001 30610023

            29890079 29760352 30210414 30710373 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN