ACUS11 KWNS 241605

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 241605 

TXZ000-NMZ000-241830-



Mesoscale Discussion 2167

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1105 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Areas affected...much of western Texas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 241605Z - 241830Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent



SUMMARY...Storms capable of large, damaging hail and eventually

damaging winds are likely to develop this afternoon from southwest

into much of western Texas.



DISCUSSION...Cooling aloft with a shortwave trough is already aiding

the development of thunderstorms containing hail over Far West TX

this morning. Substantial high clouds are currently limiting surface

heating over much of the region, but breaks in the clouds as well as

eventual boundary layer mixing with gusty south winds will

accelerate warming over the next several hours.



Surface analysis indicates the ongoing activity is just west of the

better low-level moisture where dewpoints are in the lower 60s F.

Despite the clouds and only modest surface warming, forecast

soundings indicate strong instability will develop as mid and upper

level lapse rates steepen. MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg is likely, with

greater values where heating is stronger.



Effective deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt as well as modest low-level

veering with height will favor supercells for a few hours, with

locally significant hail possible. A tornado or two is possible with

the stronger supercells that may develop, with sufficient effective

SRH increasing toward 200 m2/s2 by 00Z



..Jewell/Leitman.. 10/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...



LAT...LON   29850367 30360429 30730418 32220299 33160236 33900176

            34550093 34650018 34129968 33109963 31330043 30080119

            29810180 29850367 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN