ACUS11 KWNS 240135

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 240135 

TXZ000-240330-



Mesoscale Discussion 2166

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0835 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Areas affected...Permian Basin into Rolling Plains



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 240135Z - 240330Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and marginally severe winds could

occur through about midnight.



DISCUSSION...The most intense storms have generally trended downward

in the vicinity of Midland. KMAF radar imagery shows outflow

beginning to push away from this activity as well. Farther

northeast, low-level moisture is greater and storms have maintained

some intensity. Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling and

increasing MLCIN, the increase in the low-level jet noted on

regional VADs as well as modestly increasing mid-level ascent

suggests some activity will persist perhaps to around midnight local

time. Large hail will be possible with newer updrafts given the

moderate shear and mid-level lapse rates at or above 7 C/km (from

evening observed soundings). However, cores will likely collapse

quickly. Isolated strong to marginally severe winds are also

possible.



..Wendt/Hart.. 10/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...



LAT...LON   31650271 31970278 32210274 33230046 33499987 33599945

            33299909 32859899 31810144 31470235 31650271 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN