ACUS11 KWNS 201742

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 201742 

FLZ000-GAZ000-201945-



Mesoscale Discussion 1210

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern

Georgia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 201742Z - 201945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be

emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent

portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected.



DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of

incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has

developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may

be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional

VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour,

the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is

supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north.

Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized

convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big

Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of

the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates

on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for

damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential,

the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant

air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall

intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate

the need for watch issuance.



..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...



LAT...LON   29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476

            30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287

            29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422

            29898439 29738470