ACUS11 KWNS 201706

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 201706 

FLZ000-201930-



Mesoscale Discussion 1209

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 201706Z - 201930Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts associated with wet

downbursts will be possible through late afternoon. This threat will

remain sufficiently isolated and transient to negate the need for a

watch.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been well underway over the

past hour per regional radar and GOES imagery. Minimal capping

within a very moist environment, combined with weak ascent along a

subtle confluence axis, has resulted in convective initiation

slightly earlier than anticipated by most 12z solutions. Despite

around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, negligible deep-layer wind shear will

promote mainly pulse convection and multi-cell clusters with several

outflow boundaries from this initial activity already apparent in

radar imagery. With surface temperatures still relatively early in

the diurnal heating cycle, low-level thermodynamic conditions

(primarily low-level lapse rates) are currently not optimal to

support a more robust downburst threat. However, continued heating

through the afternoon should yield pockets of higher MLCAPE and

steeper low-level lapse rates that should favor a greater potential

for strong to severe downbursts as convection spreads

east/southeast. Based on latest radar/satellite trends, this appears

most likely along the east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula.

Regardless, the overall severe wind risk will likely remain fairly

isolated and transient.



..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...



LAT...LON   25408019 25448049 25678077 26148116 26788136 27768181

            28088188 28538174 28778154 28858108 28858073 28438045

            28178045 27848037 27408018 27098007 26837999 26638000

            25718007 25408019 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH