ACUS11 KWNS 201516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201516 NEZ000-201715- Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201516Z - 201715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail are ongoing, but may not persist beyond another hour or so. Trends are being monitored, though. DISCUSSION...Warm advection driven convection, downstream of short wave ridging spreading across and east of the northern Rockies, is ongoing across central Nebraska. Aided by inflow emanating from an elevated moist layer (850-700 mb layer), characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, a couple of cells have become fairly vigorous the past hour or so, despite the probable presence of a capping layer between 700-500 mb. Stronger storms have been focused near the southwestern edge of the stronger thermal gradient around 500 mb, which the latest Rapid Refresh output suggests will generally weaken with further warming in the 700-500 mb layer across central into eastern Nebraska through 16-18Z. Given the elevated nature of this convection above relatively cool/stable surface-based air, with little potential to acquire inflow from a destabilizing boundary layer an time soon, it remains unclear how much longer strong storm development will persist. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41679993 41899918 41349784 40579662 40139838 41109957 41679993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN