ACUS11 KWNS 191831

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191831 

MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-192030-



Mesoscale Discussion 1993

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0131 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into the Ozarks



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 191831Z - 192030Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with

scattered thunderstorms. A watch is unlikely.



DISCUSSION...Near a surface boundary and a decaying MCV, scattered

thunderstorms have developed within the Ozarks region. Farther

southwest into Oklahoma, convection is slowly developing and should

increase in coverage over the next few hours. Shear is quite weak as

are mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a very moist airmass has fueled

2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. With surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F

in some areas, steep low-level lapse rates will allow for efficient

wet microburst production with the stronger storm cores. A few

isolated strong to marginally severe winds will be possible with an

attendant threat for wind damage.



..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...



LAT...LON   34389854 34879906 35729861 35799641 36079509 36329390

            37429185 37939055 37898971 36848940 34519203 34029442

            34019734 34389854 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH