ACUS11 KWNS 071840

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 071839 

SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-072015-



Mesoscale Discussion 0436

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0139 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Areas affected...Northeast Florida...southeast Georgia and southern

South Carolina



Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...



Valid 071839Z - 072015Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.



SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and occasional wind damage will be

possible through the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection continues to shift

eastward this afternoon on weak convective outflow, as the storms

spread into an environment where surface temperatures have warmed

into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints.  Wind profiles have

become more unidirectional/southwesterly with time, and forcing for

ascent is relatively modest well downstream from the positive-tilt

midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley.  The overall severe threat

appears to be transitioning more to occasional wind damage with

short bowing segments, though a couple of tornadoes will still be

possible.



..Thompson.. 04/07/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE...



LAT...LON   29748334 29788378 29998394 30668319 31378271 32068195

            33198077 32798045 30668216 29748334 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH