ACUS11 KWNS 071719

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 071718 

NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071915-



Mesoscale Discussion 0435

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 071718Z - 071915Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind

risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is

being considered.



DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show

some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and

along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far

southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface

temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near

the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are

contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC

mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km.

As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered

thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs

show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around

15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some

storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger

low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation,

especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed

across parts of northern NC and southern VA.



As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more

robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some

potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The

tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear

and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support

a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the

coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE

and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge

this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible

weather watch.



..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...



LAT...LON   33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571

            34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH