ACUS11 KWNS 071241

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 071240 

SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-071445-



Mesoscale Discussion 0433

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0740 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Areas affected...parts of swrn through e cntrl GA...wrn and cntrl SC



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 071240Z - 071445Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...At least low probabilities for an additional tornado or

two and/or locally damaging surface gusts continues in scattered

thunderstorm activity overspread the region through 10-11 AM EDT. 

It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the

near term, but trends will continue to be monitored for this

possibility.



DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer instability, characterized by

CAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, still remains confined to a narrow

pre-frontal corridor across the western Florida Panhandle through

southwestern into southern portions of central GA.  However, some

cooling loft appears to be contributing to at least weak

destabilization north-northeastward toward the South Carolina

Piedmont.



The front, with a couple of weak waves along it, will continue a

slow eastward progression through mid to late morning, with the

Rapid Refresh indicating that a moderate south-southwesterly

low-level jet (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) will maintain

sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the

instability axis.



Cloud cover spreading downstream of the stronger ongoing convective

development probably will slow boundary-layer destabilization, and

it is not certain that there will be a substantive further increase

in thunderstorm intensities in the near term.  However, the MCV,

which apparently recently contributed to a tornado south-southwest

of the Greater Atlanta area, continues east-northeastward toward the

South Carolina Piedmont, and it not clear that the downstream

environment will not support an additional relatively short-lived

tornado or two.  Farther south, in the corridor of better

instability, focused along the low-level jet axis near/north and

east of the Albany into Macon vicinities, there may also be

continuing potential for short-lived intensification of

meso-vortices embedded with the ongoing narrow band of convection.



..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...



LAT...LON   32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443

            30508493 32118371 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH