ACUS11 KWNS 070314

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 070314 

GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-070545-



Mesoscale Discussion 0431

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1014 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025



Areas affected...Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 070314Z - 070545Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado remain

possible into the early morning hours.



DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing late this evening

across parts of south AL into the western FL Panhandle, in response

to an approaching mid/upper-level trough, and a persistent

southwesterly low-level jet. 



Several small cells with occasional weak rotation have been noted

across southeast AL. These cells may continue to develop within the

low-level warm advection regime. Modest MLCAPE and weak midlevel

lapse rates will tend to limit updraft strength, but rich

boundary-layer moisture and favorable wind profiles (as noted on

regional VWPs) will support potential for at least transient

supercells, which may be accompanied by the threat of a tornado

and/or isolated strong gusts. 



Farther west, multiple loosely organized clusters have occasionally

emerged from regenerative convection near/east of Mobile. Some

threat for locally damaging wind and a tornado could develop if any

of these clusters can become more organized and sustained as they

spread northeastward with time. 



Watch issuance continues to be considered unlikely, due to the

expectation that the severe threat will remain rather isolated, but

trends will continue to be monitored for an uptick in coverage of

organizing storms.



..Dean/Hart.. 04/07/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...



LAT...LON   30208582 30188740 30148813 30548794 30988760 31728685

            32478598 33038479 32738405 31798446 30698519 30418548

            30278566 30208582 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH