ACUS11 KWNS 061018

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 061018 

TXZ000-061245-



Mesoscale Discussion 0651

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0518 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Areas affected...Parts of the TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 061018Z - 061245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop near or after

dawn.



DISCUSSION...GPS PW values near Del Rio have substantially increased

from near 1 inch at 00 UTC to above 1.5 inches as of 10 UTC, with

surface dewpoints increasing through the low 70s F. A storm has

recently developed northwest of Del Rio across eastern Terrell

County, and this increase in deeper low-level moisture beneath

relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may yield additional storm

development near a weak surface front draped across the TX Hill

Country vicinity. MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg, strong (60+ kt) deep-layer

shear, and elongated hodographs are conditionally supportive of

supercells capable of producing large to very large hail, if deep

convection can mature within this regime. 



In the absence of substantial large-scale ascent, storm coverage

through the morning is uncertain. However, given the favorable

environment, watch issuance is possible if short-term trends support

development of persistent intense storms.



..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...



LAT...LON   29880192 31040181 31340064 31339891 31299841 30979815

            30369818 29989833 29809843 29609867 29519893 29429940

            29329999 29240049 29240086 29880192 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN