ACUS11 KWNS 060554

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 060554 

TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060800-



Mesoscale Discussion 0650

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Areas affected...from southeast OK/northeast TX into parts of the

Mid-South



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 060554Z - 060800Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may still develop overnight.



DISCUSSION...Generally weak and disorganized convection is ongoing

early this morning from parts of southeast OK into AR and western

TN. Much of this activity is occurring just north of a

southward-sagging cold front. Low-level warm/moist advection will

continue to support elevated convection north of the boundary

overnight, with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong effective shear

conditionally supporting organized convection. While storms have

struggled thus far, it remains possible that an elevated supercell

or more organized storm cluster could develop with time, posing a

threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. 



Storms have also recently developed southwest of Little Rock, to the

south of the primary front. While this convection may tend to remain

elevated due to increasing low-level stability, there may be a

window of opportunity for a near-surface-based storm to evolve

near/south of the front before convection is undercut. Should this

occur, a brief tornado threat could evolve, in addition to hail and

damaging-wind potential.



..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

OUN...



LAT...LON   34399607 34789495 35129230 35928957 36008834 35828792

            35518761 35108751 34658781 34458815 33889073 33749188

            33609261 33379352 33079459 33629569 33749601 34399607 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN