ACUS11 KWNS 060159

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 060159 

TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060400-



Mesoscale Discussion 0649

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0859 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Arkansas...Western

Tennessee...Far Northwest Mississippi



Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...



Valid 060159Z - 060400Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.



SUMMARY...Severe storm development will be possible across parts of

north-central and northeast Arkansas over the next few hours. A

tornado threat, along with potential for large hail and severe wind

gusts will be possible. New watch issuance could be needed to the

east of WW 184, if cells can trend upward in intensity.



DISCUSSION...At the surface, a cold front is located in

north-central Arkansas, along which several cells are ongoing. So

far, these storms have remained mostly on the cool side of the

boundary and are elevated. However, short-term model forecasts

suggest that additional storms will develop over the next few hours

ahead of the front from central Arkansas northeastward into western

Tennessee. If this happens, then surface-based storms will become

likely. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km shear near

75 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 550 m2/s2. This

environment will be favorable for severe storms if if cell coverage

markedly increases late this evening as the HRRR suggests. Under

this scenario, new weather watch issuance would probably be needed

to the east of the current watch.



..Broyles/Hart.. 05/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...



LAT...LON   35249346 35529332 35739287 35969152 36129024 36018954

            35848931 35578921 35278926 34948963 34789022 34519205

            34459287 34649322 34939341 35249346 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN