ACUS11 KWNS 052319

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 052319 

ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060115-



Mesoscale Discussion 0648

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0619 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Far

Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 052319Z - 060115Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop early this evening

across parts of northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and

southwest Arkansas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and an isolated

tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch will likely be needed

once convective initiation takes place.



DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from southeast

Oklahoma extending southwestward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro

and into north-central Texas. Along and ahead of the front, a field

of cumulus is evident on visible satellite imagery. Low-level

convergence is likely maximized near Fort Worth, where a boundary

from the southeast recently merged with the cold front. Short-term

model forecasts suggest that cells will initiate near the front

early this evening from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward

into northeast Texas. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is

analyzed with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.

In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 70

knots. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km

range. This should support supercells with large hail, and

hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The

storms may also be associated with severe wind gusts and an isolated

tornado threat.



..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...



LAT...LON   34649389 34349323 33699305 32999320 32579352 32339410

            32239532 32329595 32659625 33069639 33599641 34329614

            34719544 34649389 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN