ACUS11 KWNS 052152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052152 ARZ000-OKZ000-052345- Mesoscale Discussion 0647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...North-central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 052152Z - 052345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop early this evening across parts of north-central Arkansas. Large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from near the Arkansas-Missouri state line southwestward into southeast Oklahoma. A surface low is analyzed along the front in far eastern Oklahoma, near which a cell has recently initiated. Short-term model forecasts suggest that this convection will gradually deepen over the next hour, and that additional cells will develop. The convection is located near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Instability is forecast to increase across central and northern Arkansas over the next couple of hours. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Smith has 0-6 km shear near 70 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 375 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells, along with a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to develop as the storms organize and move toward the western edge of the low-level jet over north-central Arkansas early this evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35269478 35659461 35999379 36229217 36229162 36149111 35969088 35589077 35119078 34859109 34729145 34659193 34639358 34729441 34999474 35269478 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN